Who Will Die in GAME OF THRONES' Final Season? The Odds for Every Character

Feb 4 2019 -- 9:00 AM

With the White Walkers past the Wall as Game of Thrones enters its final season, prospects for survival have never been worse. What chances do all of the remaining players, from those on the fringe of the story to the most powerful figures, have of survival? We've decided to figure that out! Here are the odds for each will die during the Long Night.

To determine a character's chance of dying, we considered their importance to the story, how exposed they are to direct risk (on the battlefield or from someone else), and the emotional impact their death would have. We're not factoring in how every human could die if the Night King lives, but that's a very real possibility.

Hot Pie

Few minor characters are as beloved as Hot Pie, and killing him would be gratuitous. But he's not entirely out of the woods if the White Walkers make their way through Westeros. He's survived before, but he's not exactly a fighter or fleet of foot. Still, he might be as safe as anyone on the show, but that's far from a guarantee to live.

Odds of dying: 20%


Precious Podrick Payne is loyal and brave, and that's what scares us. One of the most likable, purely good people in Westeros, which means he's willing to give up his life to save others—plus, he won't run from the White Walkers. We have a bad feeling about Podrick, but after training with Brienne, he has a fighting chance.

Odds of dying: 65%

Ellaria Sand

Ellaria might already be dead in the Red Keep's dungeons, but more likely she's being kept alive so Cersei can continue torturing her. Even if/when King's Landing is taken, we can't imagine Cersei letting Ellaria live.

Odds of dying: 99%

Lyanna Mormont

"I don't plan on knitting by the fire while men fight for me," Lyanna has said. "I might be small, Lord Glover, and I might be a girl, but I am every bit as much a Northerner as you. And I don't need your permission to defend the North." Our advice: be mentally prepared to see young Lyanna bravely die in battle, only to watch her rise as a soldier in the army of the dead. It will still ruin you, but at least it won't blindside you like "Hold the door."

Odds of dying: 50%

Yara Greyjoy

The good news? Theon is coming to her rescue. The bad news? Theon is coming to her rescue. A captive of her crazy uncle Euron, we like her chances slightly more than Ellaria Sand's, but we're not optimistic overall. Euron can't let her live.

Odds of dying: 80%

The Mountain

His death at the hands of his brother The Hound has been foreshadowed since season one, which means we should all be prepared for the Mountain to kill the Hound instead. That won't be enough to save this monster zombie, though. Cersei's personal guard is too big a target—both literally and metaphorically—to make it out alive.

Odds of dying: 90%


As a loyal adviser and confidant to Daenerys, she's always in danger, but indirectly. Also, Missandei's death would be upsetting but not devastating, which strangely increases her chances of living. She's not out of the woods, but she's in a better spot than most.

Odds of dying: 40%


The object of Missandei's heart isn't nearly as safe. The leader of the Unsullied will be in constant danger, and his dedication to his queen means he will give his life to protect hers. Hopefully Greyworm's formidable skills in battle will be enough to keep him alive.

Odds of dying: 75%


This nut has traveled the world and faced countless dangers. He has the greatest fleet and Ironborn to fight for him, and yet his alliance with Cersei will likely end up with him dead, either when the White Walkers show up or when Daenerys rains dragonflame on him. Euron's death will be one of the most satisfying.

Odds of dying: 95%


Qyburn owes his powerful position entirely to Cersei, but he's smart. If the Mad Queen's cause is totally lost he might get out while he still can.

Odds of dying: 70%


Gendry showed he was willing and able to fight when he went beyond the Wall on Jon's wight-hunting expedition, which has us worried. However, his odds of dying would be higher if not for the fact he's the last living child of Robert Baratheon. That makes him a real candidate for the Iron Throne, which increases his chances of living.

Odds of dying: 70%

Beric Dondarrion

He thinks the Lord of Light has brought him back for a reason, but with Thoros of Myr dead, Beric no longer has a "get out of Death" card to play. With the Great War here, it's time for this soldier of god to rise to the occasion and sacrifice everything. He's a sure bet to be killed.

Odds of dying: 100%


"I will return, dear Spider, one last time. I have to die in this strange country." Like Beric, Melisandre has given her life to the Lord of Light. Now with eternal darkness threatening the world, we believe her when she says she will come back to Westeros to die in the ultimate cause. Also, old people don't like the cold. That's why they move to Florida.

Odds of dying: 100%


The last part of Melisandre's quote to Varys about dying in this strange country is the ominous line "...just like you." We've learned that red priestesses tend to know way too much about Varys, so this worries us. He won't be on the battlefield, but he won't be far from the action either. If not for the Spider's decades-long track record of surviving, we'd take Melisandre's words as a guarantee.

Odds of dying: 70%

Jorah Mormont

We're not convinced he's really cured of greyscale, but it might not matter when he's on the battlefield. He's a fighter who has seen the threat up close. Plus we know he'll give his life to save Daenerys, and she and her dragons are going to be a prime target of the White Walkers. He'll do anything to save her.

Odds of dying: 95%

Davos Seaworth

Davos has lived through Blackwater, the Battle of the Bastards, and a coup by the Night's Watch. He says he's not much of a fighter, but he's a survivor. He's right near the action though, so we're worried.

Odds of dying: 65%

Gilly and Little Sam


Gilly is also at Winterfell now, but Sam will always make sure to send her and Little Sam somewhere safe. We know the show is capable of killing a mother and her child, but we think Gilly and her son are likely to be okay.

Odds of dying: 20%

Samwell Tarly

Sam the Slayer is Jon's most loyal friend, and now that they'll be reunited we doubt they will split up again—not when the White Walkers are at hand and Sam is an invaluable source of information and research. Sam has been one of the show's best underdogs since his first appearance, which is why the show could ruin us now by killing him off. Still, his survival feels like a coin flip.

Odds of dying: 50%

Brienne of Tarth

Brienne might be the best fighter in the world, but she has sworn an oath to protect the Stark girls. That greatly increases her chances of dying bravely. She's one of our favorites, which unfortunately cuts both ways when we envision who the show would take from us so close to the finale.

Odds of dying: 60%

Theon Greyjoy

Who would you bet on in a fight between Euron and Theon? Exactly. Rescuing Yara might be a suicide mission, but even if it's not there are lots of other ways Theon could finally meet his end.

Odds of dying: 90%


Jaime is gone and Cersei thinks he betrayed her. If Bronn wasn't as smart, cunning, and skilled as he is we'd put his odds of Cersei removing his head at 100%. Instead we're leaving a little room for him to finally get his castle.

Odds of dying: 90%

The Hound

An unlikely fan favorite, The Hound has proven tough to kill. However, if he's determined to finally face his brother, his odds of winning that fight are 50/50 at best. Considering he's likely to help battle the White Walkers first, his odds are even worse.

Odds of dying: 75%

Tormund Giantsbane

We thought we lost him once, during the Frozen Lake attack, and again when the Night King attacked the Wall, but somehow he made it out both times. Tormund will never run from a fight, and he's ready to fight the dead. But as skilled as he is, all this makes a devastating death more likely than not.

Odds of dying: 65%

Arya Stark

The great thing for Arya is she can easily hide among enemies. Unfortunately that won't help her with the White Walkers. (You can't wear a face of ice, right?) A highly skilled fighter, she'll be in the middle of the Great War, but we like her odds more than most. Unless of course we're in denial of the inevitable because we couldn't handle it.

Odds of dying: 50%

Sansa Stark

She has the same odds as her sister, but for a different reason. We don't expect to see Sansa near the front, but she's not going to be far. Even if the North stops the White Walkers, Cersei is still out there, and she hates Sansa. Ned's daughters are both survivors though, so they have a chance.

Odds of dying: 50%

Bran Stark

The new Three-Eyed Raven is the single most valuable weapon in the world, not because he might be able to warg into a dragon (oh yeah), but because he has access to memories from all of history. He might be the only one who can find out how to stop the White Walkers, which is why he'll need to be protected at all costs. That also makes him a huge target though, and it also doesn't help that he's confined to a wheelchair. The North will have to flee if the White Walkers take Winterfell.

Odds of dying: 60%

Jaime Lannister

Jaime is heading North to keep his vow to fight the White Walkers. Strike one. He's hated by everyone in the North, and really most of Westeros. Strike two. Cersei thinks he has committed treason. Strike three. Will Jaime definitely die? No, but his chances of surviving aren't good!

Odds of dying: 85%

Cersei Lannister

On any other show we'd be positive the evil queen would finally get her comeuppance, but Game of Thrones isn't any other show. It will be hard even for Cersei to survive both the White Walkers and Daenerys' dragons, so we still think she's far more likely to die... even if there's a chance she's the only one to live.

Odds of dying: 90%

Tyrion Lannister

Like Arya, we might be putting his odds of dying too low because we don't want to accept he could die. He's brave, but we doubt he'll be at the front of any battle. Cersei also wants him dead, as will many Northeners who will only see him as a Lannister who killed his father. Tyrion is at risk, but we're not giving up all hope yet.

Odds of dying: 65%

Daenerys Targaryen

Dragons might be the only way to defeat the White Walkers, which makes her arguably the prime target of the Night King. Daenerys could be the ultimate victor and mankind's only hope, but that could be true and she could still die.

Odds of dying: 70%

Jon Snow

Just like Daenerys, he is possibly the Prince That Was Promised and mankind's best chance of stopping the darkness, which could still mean death. Jon has shown a willingness to give up his life to save others, which also worries us. His fighting spirit is why we think he's a greatest risk than his dear aunt.

Odds of dying: 80%

(The odds both Jon and Daenerys living? Zero percent.)

The Night King

We don't think the White Walkers will win, but they might win. The only way that happens is if the Night King lives, so his odds of dying reflect the odds of the dead winning.

Odds of dying: 85%

Yes, we think there's a 15% chance the White Walkers win the Great War. And if that happens, there's an 80% chance it would kill us.

Images: HBO