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The Odds of Each GAME OF THRONES Character Surviving the Battle of Winterfell
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“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms,” the second episode of Game of Thrones‘ final season, was one of the show’s best in years. It was a quiet, emotional installment that focused on our favorite thing about the series: the characters and their relationships. And next week they’re probably all going to die.

Okay, maybe not all of them. Most of them. While we weren’t optimistic about many of them surviving before the season, we’re downright terrified about the bloodbath we’re going to witness during the Battle of Winterfell. Especially after the show spent its final moments before the Great War reminding us how much we care about these people.

Here are our odds for each of them making it out of next week’s episode alive, but be warned: the night is dark and full of terrors, and so is our optimism.

Jaime – 10%

Jaime will fight beside Brienne at the front of the living’s left flank. Combine that with Bran’s cryptic question about how Jaime can even be sure there will be “an afterwards” and these odds might be 20% too high.

Brienne – 5%

Ser Brienne’s closest friend finally bestowed her with a title she was long worthy of, during a beautiful, heart-crushing moment years in the making. Now her death next week will make Hodor’s seem fun.

Podrick – 0%

If Brienne isn’t surviving, Podrick isn’t either, especially because his magical little Pod won’t work on the dead the way it does on the ladies.

Jorah – 15%

How much is having a Valyrian steel sword worth? 15%. Seriously, we would have had Jorah at zero had Sam not given him Heartsbane.

Grey Worm – 0%

All Grey Worm and Missandei’s conversation about moving away was missing was him saying he’s two days away from retirement, his daughter’s about to graduate from college, and when they defeat the Night King they’re going to sail to Naath on their boat “The Live-4-Eva.

Theon – 0%

Fully redeemed, Theon shared a hug with Sansa and made good on an old promise to fight with the Starks. Next week he’ll be dead and we can call him Reek again. (Get it? Cause he’ll be a dead body and they smell? What? Not in the mood for a little gallows humor right now? FAIR.)

Bran – Uh… 50%?

What the here happens if the Night King kills Bran? It’s such a crazy “What if” we can’t imagine there’s any way Jon would actually let this happen, right? As vulnerable as Bran will be out in the open of the Godswood, he’s going to have two dragons ready to rescue him. This is a coin flip, which is as good as anyone can hope for.

Sansa – 50%

She won’t be fighting, which increases her odds, and we don’t think she’ll be trapped underground either since she’ll want to oversee the battle. For the same reason we think Bran could be rescued, we think Sansa might get out alive, too. Seven hells, Daenerys might spite-save her to prove a point.

Arya – 25%

We know she’ll live long enough to be terrified of something, but that’s also a really bad sign. Honestly, if she didn’t just have a special weapon made, we’d lower her odds even more.

Gendry – 10%

Well, at least he had a pretty good last night alive.

Davos – 10%

He admittedly isn’t a good fighter, and everyone who sat around that fire felt like they were saying goodbye to the world, so this could be when the Onion Knight finally goes bad.

Tormund – 0%

Maybe he’ll be killed by that giant he murdered, the one whose wife took him to teat. That would be still be awful, but, it would be kinda funny—no, no it won’t. Tormund dying is going to kill us.

Beric – 0%

After coming back from the dead six times already, Beric has a role to play. We just think it will be to teach everyone else a lesson when he dies the seventh time.

The Hound – 5%

Know what kills wights? Fire. Know who hates fire? The Hound. Being afraid of fire and being surrounded by fire all while fighting the dead—not a great combo.

Lyanna Mormont – 5%

On any other show, killing the fierce young girl would seem ludicrous, but on Game of Thrones it’s crazy to think she will make it.

Sam – 20%

He’s a survivor; making it out of impossible situations is what he does. We also doubt he’ll be at the forefront of the battle, increasing his odds to a whopping 20%!

Dolorous Edd – 0%

Burn his body after the battle, please.

Everyone in the Crypt (Including Varys, Tyrion, Missandei, Gilly, and Little Sam) – 1%

Yas, one fricking percent, after everyone spoke about the Crypt being the safest place at Winterfell like it was the counselor bunk at Camp Crystal Lake. It feels like the most dangerous place anyone can be during the Battle, and if anyone says, “I’ll be right back,” before they walk into the Crypt, this number immediately goes to negative 400%.

Jon Snow and Daenerys Targaryen – 50%

If you have a dragon you have the chance to fly away if the Battle is lost, so we give both Jon and Daenerys decent odds of making it out of this showdown alive. We fully expect some lucky allies will also make it out with them on the backs of Drogon and Rhaegal.

The Night King – 50%

…unfortunately, that’s why we also give the Night King the same odds.

Do we think he’s going to kill everyone? No, but the odds are better than zero.


All Kings Considered airs Mondays at 12 pm PT on Geek & Sundry’s Twitch and Nerdist’s YouTube channels. Send your questions, complaints, thoughts, and theories to us @Nerdist on Twitter and you might be featured on our next episode!

Images: HBO