Before the season, we gave the odds for every remaining character on Game of Thrones dying before show’s end. And while the White Walkers might be defeated, the Battle of King’s Landing looms while major players are scheming over who will rule the Seven Kingdoms. With so many unanswered questions and dangers still left to deal with in the last two episodes, we’re looking at what we got right and wrong and updating everyone’s odds on making it out alive.
To determine a character’s chance of dying, we considered their importance to the story, how exposed they are to direct risk (on the battlefield or from someone else), and the emotional impact their death would have. We’re not factoring in how every human could die if the Night King lives, but that’s a very real possibility.
Before the season premiere: Few minor characters are as beloved as Hot Pie, and killing him would be gratuitous. But he’s not entirely out of the woods if the White Walkers make their way through Westeros. He’s survived before, but he’s not exactly a fighter or fleet of foot. Still, he might be as safe as anyone on the show, but that’s far from a guarantee to live. Odds of dying: 20%
UPDATE: Maybe we will see Hot Pie again now that Arya is back on the road heading south, but with the White Walkers gone, he seems totally safe. New odds of dying: 0%
Before the season premiere: Precious Podrick Payne is loyal and brave, and that’s what scares us. He’s one of the most likable, purely good people in Westeros, which means he’s willing to give up his life to save others—plus, he won’t run from the White Walkers. We have a bad feeling about Podrick, but after training with Brienne, he has a fighting chance. Odds of dying: 65%
UPDATE: A fighting spirit and strong plot armor helped him survive the Long Night, and with Brienne staying North he should be safe. New odds of dying: 0%
Before the season premiere: Ellaria might already be dead in the Red Keep’s dungeons, but more likely she’s being kept alive so Cersei can continue torturing her. Even if/when King’s Landing is taken, we can’t imagine Cersei letting Ellaria live. Odds of dying: 99%
UPDATE: Cersei’s murder of Missandei proved what kind of mercy her enemies can expect. That little shred of hope we had for Ellaria died with the Mountain’s fatal blow.
New odds of dying: 100%
Before the season premiere: “I don’t plan on knitting by the fire while men fight for me,” Lyanna has said. “I might be small, Lord Glover, and I might be a girl, but I am every bit as much a Northerner as you. And I don’t need your permission to defend the North.” Our advice: be mentally prepared to see young Lyanna bravely die in battle, only to watch her rise as a soldier in the army of the dead. It will still ruin you, but at least it won’t blindside you like “Hold the door.” Odds of dying: 50%
UPDATE: DEAD. But she went out like a little boss, killing a giant wight in her final moments.
Before the season premiere: The good news? Theon is coming to her rescue. The bad news? Theon is coming to her rescue. A captive of her crazy uncle Euron, we like her chances slightly more than Ellaria Sand’s, but we’re not optimistic overall. Euron can’t let her live. Odds of dying: 80%
UPDATE: We never thought Euron would let her slip away, which is why we were so low on her chances of living. Now we think she could head back to King’s Landing to help Daenerys fight him, so she’s not out of the woods yet. New odds of dying: 50%
Before the season premiere: His death at the hands of his brother The Hound has been foreshadowed since season one, which means we should all be prepared for the Mountain to kill the Hound instead. That won’t be enough to save this monster zombie, though. Cersei’s personal guard is too big a target—both literally and metaphorically—to make it out alive. Odds of dying: 90%
UPDATE: Not much has changed other than the Hound surviving the fight with the dead and leaving for King’s Landing to fight his brother. That bumps this up even higher. New odds of dying: 95%
Before the season premiere: As a loyal adviser and confidant to Daenerys, she’s always in danger, but indirectly. Also, Missandei’s death would be upsetting but not devastating, which strangely increases her chances of living. She’s not out of the woods, but she’s in a better spot than most. Odds of dying: 40%
UPDATE: DEAD. We got almost everything about this wrong. She was in direct danger because of her position with Daenerys, and her death was devastating.
Before the season premiere: The object of Missandei’s heart isn’t nearly as safe. The leader of the Unsullied will be in constant danger, and his dedication to his queen means he will give his life to protect hers. Hopefully Grey Worm’s formidable skills in battle will be enough to keep him alive. Odds of dying: 75%
UPDATE: He still has a major war to fight, but now he’s lost the person he planned to spend the rest of his life with. His desire for vengeance makes him less safe. New odds of dying: 95%
Before the season premiere: This nut has traveled the world and faced countless dangers. He has the greatest fleet and Ironborn to fight for him, and yet his alliance with Cersei will likely end up with him dead, either when the White Walkers show up or when Daenerys rains dragonflame on him. Euron’s death will be one of the most satisfying. Odds of dying: 95%
UPDATE: He killed the Mother of Dragon’s child. That’s a hell of a big target to put on yourself. New odds of dying: 100%
Before the season premiere: Qyburn owes his powerful position entirely to Cersei, but he’s smart. If the Mad Queen’s cause is totally lost he might get out while he still can. Odds of dying: 70%
UPDATE: We no longer think there’s anywhere for him to escape to after Missandei’s execution. Even if he turns on Cersei he won’t be forgiven for his service to her. We’ll give him a small chance of living just because he’s so cunning. New odds of dying: 95%
Before the season premiere: Gendry showed he was willing and able to fight when he went beyond the Wall on Jon’s wight-hunting expedition, which has us worried. However, his odds of dying would be higher if not for the fact he’s the last living child of Robert Baratheon. That makes him a real candidate for the Iron Throne, which increases his chances of living. Odds of dying: 70%
UPDATE: Now Gendry Baratheon, he seems slightly safer in the context of the show, but all the same reasons we thought he might die fighting the White Walkers are why he could die fighting Cersei. New odds of dying: 50%
Before the season premiere: He thinks the Lord of Light has brought him back for a reason, but with Thoros of Myr dead, Beric no longer has a “get out of Death” card to play. With the Great War here, it’s time for this soldier of god to rise to the occasion and sacrifice everything. He’s a sure bet to be killed. Odds of dying: 100%
UPDATE: DEAD. Nailed it!
Before the season premiere: “I will return, dear Spider, one last time. I have to die in this strange country.” Like Beric, Melisandre has given her life to the Lord of Light. Now with eternal darkness threatening the world, we believe her when she says she will come back to Westeros to die in the ultimate cause. Also, old people don’t like the cold. That’s why they move to Florida. Odds of dying: 100%
UPDATE: DEAD. Are we prophets?
Before the season premiere: The last part of Melisandre’s quote to Varys about dying in this strange country is the ominous line “…just like you.” We’ve learned that red priestesses tend to know way too much about Varys, so this worries us. He won’t be on the battlefield, but he won’t be far from the action either. If not for the Spider’s decades-long track record of surviving, we’d take Melisandre’s words as a guarantee. Odds of dying: 70%
UPDATE: Planning to betray a dragon-owning Tagaryen who already distrusts you? Not smart. Melisandre was right. New odds of dying: 100%
Before the season premiere: We’re not convinced he’s really cured of greyscale, but it might not matter when he’s on the battlefield. He’s a fighter who has seen the threat up close. Plus we know he’ll give his life to save Daenerys, and she and her dragons are going to be a prime target of the White Walkers. He’ll do anything to save her. Odds of dying: 95%
UPDATE: DEAD. “He’ll do anything to save her,” and he did.
Before the season premiere: Davos has lived through Blackwater, the Battle of the Bastards, and a coup by the Night’s Watch. He says he’s not much of a fighter, but he’s a survivor. He’s right near the action though, so we’re worried. Odds of dying: 65%
UPDATE: We know he’ll be at the Battle of King’s Landing, and being a loyal servant to Jon Snow is now more dangerous than ever since his secret birth is being learned by others. Still, we feel better about Davos than before, though not totally. New odds of dying: 50%
Gilly and Little Sam
Before the season premiere: Gilly is also at Winterfell now, but Sam will always make sure to send her and Little Sam somewhere safe. We know the show is capable of killing a mother and her child, but we think Gilly and her son are likely to be okay. Odds of dying: 20%
UPDATE: And we didn’t even know she was carrying another little one. They should be totally out of the woods now. New odds of dying: 0%
Before the season premiere: Sam the Slayer is Jon’s most loyal friend, and now that they’ll be reunited we doubt they will split up again—not when the White Walkers are at hand and Sam is an invaluable source of information and research. Sam has been one of the show’s best underdogs since his first appearance, which is why the show could ruin us now by killing him off. Still, his survival feels like a coin flip. Odds of dying: 50%
UPDATE: Papa Samwell can now return home as the Lord of Horn Hill and maybe even as Warden of the South if Daenerys or Jon sit on the Iron Throne. New odds of dying: 0%
Brienne of Tarth
Before the season premiere: Brienne might be the best fighter in the world, but she has sworn an oath to protect the Stark girls. That greatly increases her chances of dying bravely. She’s one of our favorites, which unfortunately cuts both ways when we envision who the show would take from us so close to the finale. Odds of dying: 60%
UPDATE: How she survived the White Walkers we’ll never know, and since she’s not going to die of a broken heart we think she’s safe at King’s Landing protecting Sansa. New odds of dying: 0%
Before the season premiere: Who would you bet on in a fight between Euron and Theon? Exactly. Rescuing Yara might be a suicide mission, but even if it’s not there are lots of other ways Theon could finally meet his end. Odds of dying: 90%
UPDATE: DEAD. We were right to be so low on his odds, but for the wrong reason. Rescuing Yara was surprisingly easy, but killing the Night King wasn’t. Well, it wasn’t easy for him.
Before the season premiere: Jaime is gone and Cersei thinks he betrayed her. If Bronn wasn’t as smart, cunning, and skilled as he is we’d put his odds of Cersei removing his head at 100%. Instead we’re leaving a little room for him to finally get his castle. Odds of dying: 90%
UPDATE: We didn’t expect Cersei to put him to work, but trying to double-cross her now by letting the Lannister brothers trump her offer is just as dangerous. Plus they don’t trust him now either. New odds of dying: 95%
Before the season premiere: An unlikely fan favorite, The Hound has proven tough to kill. However, if he’s determined to finally face his brother, his odds of winning that fight are 50/50 at best. Considering he’s likely to help battle the White Walkers first, his odds are even worse. Odds of dying: 75%
UPDATE: He survived the dead, so back to a coin flip it is. New odds of dying: 50%
Before the season premiere: We thought we lost him once at the Frozen Lake, and again when the Night King attacked the Wall, but somehow he made it out both times. Tormund will never run from a fight, and he’s ready to fight the dead. But as skilled as he is, all this makes a devastating death more likely than not. Odds of dying: 65%
UPDATE: Free and clear and owner of a big ole direworld, Tormund is safe now that he’s returning to the true north. New odds of dying: 0%
Before the season premiere: The great thing for Arya is she can easily hide among enemies. Unfortunately that won’t help her with the White Walkers. (You can’t wear a face of ice, right?) A highly skilled fighter, she’ll be in the middle of the Great War, but we like her odds more than most. Unless of course we’re in denial of the inevitable because we couldn’t handle it. Odds of dying: 50%
UPDATE: “The great thing for Arya is she can easily hide among enemies.” Seven hells did we get THAT right, just please (please please please) ignore the next sentence. Night King killer or not, her quest to kill Cersei means she could still die, but we feel much better about her chances of living now. New odds of dying: 20%
Before the season premiere: She has the same odds as her sister, but for a different reason. We don’t expect to see Sansa near the front, but she’s not going to be far. Even if the North stops the White Walkers, Cersei is still out there, and she hates Sansa. Ned’s daughters are both survivors though, so they have a chance. Odds of dying: 50%
UPDATE: If Cersei wins the Battle of King’s Landing, Sansa becomes her top target, but even that happens (we don’t think it will), the Lady of Winterfell is far away and a survivor. She’s safe. New odds of dying: 0%
Before the season premiere: The new Three-Eyed Raven is the single most valuable weapon in the world, not because he might be able to warg into a dragon (oh yeah), but because he has access to memories from all of history. He might be the only one who can find out how to stop the White Walkers, which is why he’ll need to be protected at all costs. That also makes him a huge target though, and it also doesn’t help that he’s confined to a wheelchair. The North will have to flee if the White Walkers take Winterfell. Odds of dying: 60%
UPDATE: The only thing we got right here was that Bran was a “huge target.” Now he’s safe to be vague and totally helpless under less dire circumstances. New odds of dying: 0%
Before the season premiere: Jaime is heading North to keep his vow to fight the White Walkers. Strike one. He’s hated by everyone in the North, and really most of Westeros. Strike two. Cersei thinks he has committed treason. Strike three. Will Jaime definitely die? No, but his chances of surviving aren’t good. Odds of dying: 85%
UPDATE: That goodbye with Brienne felt like a final farewell. It might be optimistic giving him anything less than a guaranteed death, but we’re leaving a tiny chance for him to get away from his evil twin before it’s too late. New odds of dying: 95%
Before the season premiere: On any other show we’d be positive the evil queen would finally get her comeuppance, but Game of Thrones isn’t any other show. It will be hard even for Cersei to survive both the White Walkers and Daenerys’ dragons, so we still think she’s far more likely to die, even if there’s a chance she’s the only one to live. Odds of dying: 90%
UPDATE: It’s amazing what a cadre of giant crossbows, the death of a dragon, and your enemy being cut in half by the White Walkers will do for your chances. Unfortunately for Cersei both an army and a face-swapping Night King killer is coming for her. Her chances of living feel as tenuous as ever. New odds of dying: Still 90%
Before the season premiere: Like Arya, we might be putting his odds of dying too low because we don’t want to believe he could die. He’s brave, but we doubt he’ll be at the front of any battle. Cersei also wants him dead, as will many Northeners who will only see him as a Lannister who killed his father. Tyrion is at risk, but we’re not giving up all hope yet. Odds of dying: 65%
UPDATE: He will be at the front for the Battle of King’s Landing, but we’re worried about him even entertaining the idea of betraying Daenerys. He’s no safer now than he was before the season. New odds of dying: still 65%
Before the season premiere: Dragons might be the only way to defeat the White Walkers, which makes her arguably the prime target of the Night King. Daenerys could be the ultimate victor and mankind’s only hope, but that could be true and she could still die. Odds of dying: 70%
UPDATE: The White Walkers couldn’t stop her, but Euron Greyjoy killed Rhaegal, which zero people would have predicted. Even worse than the death of her dragon though is that everyone around her, except for Jon, suddenly doesn’t believe in her. We’re officially worried for Daenerys for a lot of reasons. New odds of dying: 80%
Before the season premiere: Just like Daenerys, he is possibly the Prince That Was Promised and mankind’s best chance of stopping the darkness, which could still mean death. Jon has shown a willingness to give up his life to save others, which also worries us. His fighting spirit is why we think he’s a greatest risk than his dear aunt. Odds of dying: 80%
UPDATE: Jon, whom everyone loves despite yet another terrible battle performance, feels safer than he has in a long time. For him that still means a decent chance of dying, either in battle or by saving the woman he loves. New odds of dying: 50%
(The odds of both Jon and Daenerys living? Zero percent. UPDATE: STILL TRUE )
The Night King
Before the season premiere: We don’t think the White Walkers will win, but they might win. The only way that happens is if the Night King lives, so his odds of dying reflect the odds of the dead winning. Odds of dying: 85%
UPDATE: DEAD. The real surprise was how quickly it happened.
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