Odds for Which GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY Will Die in VOL. 3

The Guardians of the Galaxy are getting together for one last ride. As always with that group of unlikely heroes we expect Vol. 3 to be funny, exciting, and touching. Unfortunately, we also know not everyone will make it out alive. The original Groot sacrificed himself in the first film. Yondu did the same in the second. Thanos traded the original Gamora’s life for the Soul Stone in Infinity War. And they collectively killed Kevin Bacon’s icy heart in their holiday special. But we think their third and final solo film will be their saddest entry yet.

Who is most likely to say goodbye to the MCU for good and who will continue on in the franchise? We’ve given odds for each of them about who will die in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.

Rocket Raccoon – 100%

Rocket Raccoon looks sad in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Marvel Studios

“What the hell,” said Rocket in the original film, “I don’t got that long a lifespan, anyway.” He’s right, and that life will come to a sad end in Vol. 3, a movie that will explore Rocket’s painful past. We thought that before seeing a single trailer for the movie. Now that every promo keeps teasing an emotional end for the beloved wiseass we’re convinced of it. It’s gonna freaking kill us. Only we didn’t mean to say “freaking.”

Drax the Destroyer – 100%

A battered Drax with head wounds in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Marvel Studios

Rocket’s not the only one who all but told us how his story would end way back in Vol. 1. That’s when Drax said he would fight alongside his friends and see his wife and daughter again in the end. Dave Bautista might be ready for his character to bid the ultimate farewell to the MCU, but we’re not prepared. We doubt we will be even though we believe it’s definitely going to happen.

Nebula – 70%

Nebula in an organe jumpsuit with her head turned down n Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Marvel Studios

Thanos’ other surviving daughter has had one of the most fascinating arcs in the entire franchise. She went from a terrifying villain to a slightly-less terrifying hero who dances. We don’t want to say goodbye to Nebula, but it would be fitting for her to go out in a blaze of glory. We’re also sure Karen Gillan wouldn’t mind saying goodbye to all those many hours in the makeup chair.

Kraglin – 50%

Kraglin closes his eyes and holds his arrow as people run around him in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Marvel Studios

Kraglin might be a newer member of the Guardians, but Sean Gunn has been a major part of the group since day one. He physically plays Rocket. (Bradley Cooper voices the trash panda.) Kraglin is a sad character. He lost his best friend and captain and is still struggling to control Yondu’s arrow. It would seem cruel for him to die right when he’s likely to finally have a big breakthrough with his new family. However, writer-director James Gunn (now in charge of DC Studios) might also want to give his real-life brother an iconic death as they both say goodbye to the MCU. That’s why we think Kraglin’s fate is a total coin flip.

Peter Quill – 40%

Nebula carries a lifeless Peter Quill as she walks with the other Guardians in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Marvel Studios

The leader of the ragtag bunch nearly doomed half the universe to extinction in Infinity War when he couldn’t control his anger and grief at Thanos. If anyone owes the galaxy the ultimate sacrifice, it’s him. With this iteration of the group ending, it would also be fitting for Chris Pratt’s Star-Lord to say goodbye to the MCU, too. So we won’t be surprised if he dies, but if we had to pick, we’ll guess he lives and retires as a hero. At least he’ll retire until Marvel brings Peter Quill back.

Swoll Groot – 25%

Swoll Groot smiles at Peter in The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special
Marvel Studios

We already had to watch one beloved Groot sacrifice himself. His death was powerful, of course, but it’s still painful. Are we really going to have to see his son, affectionately known as Swoll Groot, also die? After we watched him grow from a baby to a thicc tree!? We don’t think so. We certainly hope not. But we wouldn’t put it past Gunn either.

2014 Gamora – 10%

Gamora holds a poloroid photo in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Marvel Studios

We can’t wait to see how Gamora and Peter’s story ends, specifically because this is not the Gamora he fell in love with. This is 2014 Gamora, who was never a member of the Guardians. That’s exactly why we doubt Zoe Saldana’s character will die a second time in the MCU. Not only would that be weird and unearned, it would diminish the impact of the original character’s own sad end. Gamora is dead. Long live Gamora!

Mantis – 5%

Mantis looks sad as she waves goodbye  in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Marvel Studios

If we’re being honest, 5% is probably too high. Mantis is the best, an indisputable fact after Pom Klementieff’s star turn in The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special. It feels like Mantis just truly got here despite this being the character’s fifth MCU movie/special. She’s too good to kill off now. The franchise needs more Mantis! If anyone else wrote this film we’d have her odds of dying at negative percent.*

(*What does a negative percent of dying even mean? Uh…it’s the same as saying there’s a positive percent chance the character gets a clone? Becomes an immortal god? Look, we’re not sure, just have some fun and don’t take things so seriously.**)

(**Unless Mantis dies. Then we have a very serious problem on our hands.)

Cosmo the Spacedog – 0.01%

Cosmo the Dog talks with Rocket in The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special
Marvel Studios

Speaking of taking things too seriously, if anything happens to Cosmo we’re going to be so angry online they’ll have to shutdown the internet for at least a day. Maybe two. Wouldn’t even rule out three.

We know not every Guardian will survive Vol. 3, but the very good Spacedog better. There’s only so many characters we can handle dying.

Mikey Walsh is a staff writer at Nerdist. You can follow him on Twitter at @burgermike, and also anywhere someone is ranking the Targaryen kings.

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